Friday, February 04, 2005

The Next Four Years

President Bush seemed to indicate that he intends to put into practice the elements of his inaugural address and seems to expect the following of various Arab nations over his coming term in office:
  1. A budding democratic process in Iraq, Afghanistan & the Palestinian entity: We have started to see this already.
  2. A move towards human rights from Egypt and anti-terrorism from Saudi Arabia: These are US allies by necessity who don't quite fit the mould described in the inaugural address
  3. A significant change in direction by Syria: Face sanctions or stop terror support; withdraw from Lebanon; and aim for conflict resolution with Israel.
  4. The big one: A non-military backed regime change in Iran: Bush evoked the recent events in Ukraine and Iraq to appeal to the man on the street in Iraq all while maintaining diplomatic pressure coupled by neighboring military muscle - the classic Good Cop (EU), Bad Cop (US) game.
  5. North Korea remains unclear
Read the highly recomended take on the Iran prediction at:
Regime Change Iran: Reading the tea leaves - Bush's Strategy on Iran

No comments: